Arbitrage and sure bets
For beginner bettors, this article will introduce concepts of arbitrage and sure bets. Arbitrage or arbitrage in sports betting is to bet on all possible outcomes of a game in order to make profit regardless of the outcome. The betting is done at the highest prices of the market, of course obtained from betting exchanges. This possibility coming from different lines that bookmakers agree to disagree with one another. Of course all bets will be placed at these odds, i.e. bet £1 on team A and £1.5 on team B, the total demand and supply being £2.5m plus the odd of £1.5m for team A and £2.5m for team B, this guarantee not including your betting exchange balance. You still lose!
Because some bookmakers bet less than the highest prices, they will always have to accept a proportion of winning bets in order to make a profit. The system is known in betting parlance as the “line”. The relation between the vague price and the actual betting price can be expressed in a ratio of 2:1, known as the “evens bet”. That example above, where a sports arbitrage occurs, team A would be 2:1 on the betting exchanges and 3:1 on the bookmaker’s prices. On the bookmaker’s prices, team B would be 4:1 on the betting exchanges, and 5:1 on the bookmaker’s prices. The arbitrage, i.e. the difference between the bookmaker’s prices and the betting exchange rates, is the “history” of the bet. With the huge amounts of money involved, there’s no room here for mistakes or mistakes. The death of a bet is not far away if there is a single tiny mistake.
How to bet on sure bets
If you want to play safe, you can bet using the “blind numbers” or the bet in the hole. If you have bet £100 in the last 10 years on a certain team, and you Millennium Marches bet £100 on the same team again, then the best price you can expect to be offered is around 4:1. Of course, you don’t know the exact price, it could be any price.
How to bet using the blind numbers
In blind betting, the bet is placed in the first arm of betting, whether that is the first, second or third.
There are a number of systems on how to do this, the oldest being since about 1800 when the game was being played by the Riverboat gamblers. Briefly, if you put your stake down in the first arm, you could hope that someone along the way would match your bet.
This is still tried and tested today in virtual betting and satellite tournaments.
How to bet using the evens bet
If you want somewhere a little more secure, and a little safer, than using the “blind numbers”, then you can try the evens bet. This is a little more complicated to explain, but football, like rugby, has a number of what are known as “national anthems” or “haunts” and the betting is done in variants as well.
First, you need to be in touch with the markets, bookmakers, odds compilers and so on. You will need to be an indulge in the markets, bookmakers, in-play markets and odds compilers to understand how to place a bet in the first instance. National anthems or “pokerace99” or “all the four and one” are examples of local markets.
You also need to understand the ranking of the odds in order to place a bet, that is how the prices are laid out. Reading odds, mention the number of legs to a bookmaker and so on, understanding what each number means. The first thing will be to understand what the odds indicate are the chances of the horse winning, or the probability of a horse winning a particular race.
Next, see what the bookmakers mean when they price up a market. Are they serious? Are the odds being offered to tipsters? guides? What is a punter’s best chance of winning?
And finally, you need to know what the bookmakers mean when they prop up the odds on a horse to try and attract more money to the table in the hope of having a bigger wager on the winner. They are effectively doing the same thing as the odds compilers do when they prices up a market. They are setting a price on a horse to try and encourage more people to bet on the horse.
In order to make money long-term in betting, when you are dealing with the serious clients, you cannot expect to have a good run every day. It is rare, but it does happen.